Two-way races abound within the historical past of finest musical on the Tonys. However a real three-way race? That’s uncommon. It is a bit subjective, however up to now twenty years I’d argue that we’ve solely seen one race with no less than three nominees being extensively thought of as potential frontrunners: Two years in the past, when The Outsiders bested Hell’s Kitchen and Suffs for the highest class.
Till, maybe, this 12 months. It may not be fairly as tight as that 2024 race, however (with all due respect to Titaníque), you could possibly make a compelling case for any of Schmigadoon!, The Misplaced Boys, or probably Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Throughout New York).
Nonetheless, a kind of three does have a lead. How do we all know? Math. Yearly, I plug in all the Tonys knowledge from that season – which different classes a present is nominated in, earlier theater honors, aggregated critic predictions, and betting markets – to find out the chances that every nominee in every class goes residence a winner. Let’s discover out who’s forward on this 12 months’s notably open-ended races.
We’ve obtained three contenders in double-digits, however one stands out forward of the pack: Schmigadoon!, the sunny love letter to Golden Age musicals, has simply higher than a 50-50 probability to take the highest prize. Nonetheless, The Misplaced Boys and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Throughout New York) have loads of causes to maintain their hopes excessive.
Greatest play isn’t fairly as shut as finest musical. Bess Wohl already received the Pulitzer Prize for Liberation, and has a 3-in-5 probability to observe up with a Tony. If there’s to be an upset, look to David Lindsay-Abaire’s The Balusters, which received honors from this 12 months’s Outer Critics Circle Awards and Drama Desk Awards.
Ragtime swept by the precursors, rising as the favourite to lastly win a finest present trophy. The unique Broadway musical received 4 classes however fell quick in opposition to The Lion King for the ultimate award, and the 2009 revival misplaced this class to La Cage aux Folles. Nevertheless, it’s price remembering that Cats: The Jellicle Ball debuted off-Broadway earlier than this season, which means it wasn’t eligible for all the identical precursors that Ragtime received this 12 months.
Probably the most assured prediction of the 4 finest present classes can be essentially the most acquainted title. Loss of life of a Salesman, after profitable the second-ever Tony for finest play, has gone on to win three separate Tonys for finest revival. This is able to be its fourth, doubling up second place on the all-time play revival win listing, A View from the Bridge.
Joshua Henry (Ragtime) should get previous his personal costar (Brandon Uranowitz) to win main actor in a musical, however he shouldn’t have an excessive amount of bother. The mathematics says he’s the more than likely winner out of any of this 12 months’s 41 appearing nominees.
Caissie Levy (Ragtime) isn’t fairly as seemingly as her costar Joshua Henry to go residence a winner, however she does sit simply above the 50-50 mark, effectively forward of second place Marla Mindelle (Titaníque). If Henry and Levy make it a Ragtime sweep, it might be solely the third time this century {that a} musical received each main appearing classes. The primary two have been Hairspray (2003) and The Band’s Go to (2018).
John Lithgow. Nathan Lane. That is as traditional of a heavyweight title bout because it will get. It’s solely the fifteenth time in Tonys historical past that two actors who’ve already received a number of appearing awards are squaring up in opposition to each other. Of the earlier 14, solely 4 instances has a kind of multi-time winners gone on to win the class (within the different 10 years, a relative newcomer beat each of them). This has all of the makings of a terrific Tony duel.
It’s a Tony virtually 2,500 years within the making. Because the Tony Awards started, there have been six productions of the traditional Greek traditional Oedipus to grace the Broadway stage, but none has ever received a Tony. That appears to vary this 12 months, with Lesley Manville serving because the frontrunner for main actress in a play. Sophocles could be proud.
With Cats: The Jellicle Ball opening off-Broadway in June 2024, lots of the precursors get a bit muddied. For instance, André De Shields (Cats: The Jellicle Ball) received an Outer Critics Circle honor in 2025, Ben Levi Ross (Ragtime) received one in 2026, however we have been denied a head-to-head face-off. Add all of it up and De Shields carries a tiny 3.6 p.c lead into an evening after they most actually will go head-to-head.
Greatest featured actress in a musical is a tough class to foretell, because it’s the one one of many eight appearing classes wherein not one of the nominees obtained nominations from both the Drama Desk or Outer Critics Circle Awards. Nonetheless, the favored crucial choose and betting odds chief is Shoshana Bean (The Misplaced Boys), so she comes out forward within the mannequin.
Maintain your breath for this one. We have now six nominees, however none of them attain 33 p.c, the one class for which that holds true this 12 months. That makes Alden Ehrenreich (Becky Shaw) the shakiest frontrunner headed into Sunday night time, with Christopher Abbott (Loss of life of a Salesman) oh-so-close on his heels.
Loads of headlines deservedly went to 96-year-old June Squibb (Marjorie Prime), who broke Lois Smith’s file to turn out to be the oldest Tony nominee in historical past. And he or she does nonetheless have an opportunity to win, like Smith did 5 years in the past, nevertheless it’s going to be an uphill battle in opposition to Laurie Metcalf (Loss of life of a Salesman).
Greatest route of a musical is successfully the identical race as finest revival – Cats: The Jellicle Ball vs. Ragtime – however probably with the other outcome. After all the knowledge was tabulated and the mannequin was run, the mathematics barely leans in direction of Cats on this race, however solely by a 6 p.c margin.
Joe Mantello is a mainstay of those awards, now spanning 4 many years’ price of Tony nominations throughout each directing and appearing classes. However his final win got here 22 years in the past for steering the musical Assassins. The mathematics says it’s time for him to retake the stage on his sixth nomination for route of a play.
The unique manufacturing of Cats received seven Tonys, this 12 months’s rendition is nominated for 9, and finest costume design is the more than likely overlapping winner between the 2 reveals. Ought to it win for its feline creations, it might turn out to be the seventh musical to take residence costume honors in a number of years.
Jeff Mahshie (Fallen Angels) has one prior Tony nomination: Greatest costume design of a musical for She Loves Me, ten years in the past. That present had the deep misfortune to run up in opposition to the awards juggernaut often called Hamilton, for which Paul Tazewell received the costume design Tony. A decade later, and Mahshie has an opportunity to return the favor, with Tazewell sitting in second place for Joe Turner’s Come and Gome.
Michael Arden has already etched a singular place in Tonys historical past this season, by changing into the primary individual nominated for each directing and lighting design for a similar musical (amongst performs, solely Terry Arms has pulled off this twin nomination, for 1985’s A lot Ado About Nothing). Now, Arden – together with co-lighting designer Jen Schriever – stands in pole place on this race for The Misplaced Boys.
Probably the most Tony Awards ever received by play revival is 4, a file shared by 4 reveals together with the 1999 revival of Loss of life of a Salesman. The 2026 incarnation of that very same play has a wholesome probability to tie and even surpass that file, and lighting design of a play is among the classes it has to win to have an opportunity at making that historical past.
The three-story, 80s-themed, supernatural-tinged set of The Misplaced Boys could be spectacular sufficient if it simply sat nonetheless for your complete present. Add in the truth that all the puzzle items need to seamlessly transfer into and out of place to accommodate the occasional flying vampire, and also you’ve obtained your self all of the substances for Dane Laffrey to win this class twice in a row, approaching the heels of Possibly Comfortable Ending.
The seven most up-to-date Tonys for finest scenic design of a play all went to designers who had prior nominations of their careers. So, it may be good to see a contemporary face on stage. The 2 main contenders – Chloe Lamford (Loss of life of a Salesman) and Hildegard Bechtler (Oedipus) – are first-time Tony nominees, not like their three less-likely-to-win opponents.
Make that three musical classes in a row for The Misplaced Boys, although we are able to’t depend out Cats: The Jellicle Ball within the sound design class. Ought to The Misplaced Boys go three-for-three on the classes that outline the look-and-feel of the stage (lighting design, scenic design, sound design), it might turn out to be the seventh musical to take action, and the primary since Moulin Rouge (2020).
Within the transient historical past of the most effective sound design of a play class, Tom Gibbons (Oedipus) is tied with Ian Dickinson for essentially the most solo nominations for this award with out having received a Tony on this or another class. He has a 58.3 p.c probability to interrupt by with a win in opposition to the night time’s greatest awards favourite amongst performs, Loss of life of a Salesman.
You need to keep in your dancing toes to maintain up with all the winking references to the Broadway of yore in Cinco Paul’s script for Schmigadoon!. I ought to notice that there’s hardly any precedent for a way voters will reply to a ebook based mostly closely off of a pre-exiting tv present, although reveals based mostly on movies (winners this century: The Producers, Hairspray, Billy Elliott, As soon as, The Band’s Go to, Tootsie) appear to have achieved simply effective.
Greatest authentic rating goes to be a massively essential class this 12 months, not simply in its personal proper, however as an ideal mirror of the most effective musical race. The identical three reveals poised to slug it out on the prime of the most effective musical standings are the highest three contenders right here, and virtually tied with each other. We’ll discover out if voters are inclined to tip their palms or to unfold the wealth.
This can be the mannequin’s most stunning set of odds. Cats: The Jellicle Ball is closely favored within the public sphere by critics and betting markets alike. The mannequin bakes all of that in, nevertheless it’s a bit extra impressed by Schmigadoon!’s run by awards season, together with head-to-head on the Chita Rivera Awards and unopposed by Cats on the Outer Critics Circle Awards.
Greatest orchestrations marks the fourth predicted win for Schmigadoon!, however that musical is hardly alone in its projection to stroll away a winner. If each single frontrunner listed on this article wins its class – a extremely unlikely prevalence – this could be the primary time within the historical past of the Tony Awards that 4 totally different musicals (Schmigadoon!, The Misplaced Boys, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, Ragtime) every received three or extra classes.
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Whether or not it’s a two-race, a three-way race, or much more open-ended, each class announcement will likely be a career-defining triumph for one artist and an thrilling conclusion for all of us viewers.
Ben Zauzmer (@BensOscarMath) makes use of knowledge to put in writing about awards reveals for The Hollywood Reporter.
